Battle Plans: Which Birds Will Soar on Sunday?

Ravens Offense vs PHI Defense

Work a Numbers Advantage

The Eagles have rounded into a top-five defense this season, allowing -0.14 EPA/play against the pass and the run. Since the insertion of rookie Cooper DeJean into the starting lineup as a slot corner, Philadelphia has run nickel at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Combine that with their league-leading light box rate (69.7%), and their formula is clear: rely on four-man fronts and light boxes to stop the run and rush the passer while maintaining a numbers advantage in coverage.

The Ravens need to beat them at their own game by exploiting their own numbers advantage in the run game. This has been a common theme for Baltimore this season, particularly against the Commanders and the Chargers, both games in which heavy personnel battered the defense at the line of scrimmage and forced them to adjust. The Ravens should attack the same way on Sunday, with Patrick Ricard in line for an increased workload with Charlie Kolar sidelined.

It’s worth noting that the Eagles’ have the 10th-best light box run defense (-0.08 EPA/rush), but the Ravens are more than capable of crushing that number. It’s a simple and familiar plan: heavy personnel with a variety of under center runs with Derrick Henry designed to get offensive linemen on linebackers and tight ends on defensive backs. Monken should also consider running out of shotgun or the pistol on intermediate downs with Ricard at tight end and Andrews or Likely in the slot to attack light boxes while maintaining the threat to pass.

As in past games, this should lead to chunk gains on the ground while forcing the Eagles to match with base personnel and stacked boxes. Philadelphia has only used a stacked box 8.3% of the time – a small sample size of 32 snaps – but when they do, they allow a league-low -0.80 EPA/rush. The Ravens, meanwhile, lead the league with +0.18 EPA/rush and 16 explosive runs against stacked boxes, led by Henry’s 75 attempts and 465 yards.

Monken’s willingness to send Henry against stacked boxes has been his trump card this season. He’s like a poker player pulling off a slow roll, just checking and calling before going all-in on the river, knowing all the while he has the nuts. Henry keeps picking up yards against stacked boxes, forcing the opposing safeties to commit to run defense and softening up the defense for a deep shot off play action.

Monken’s Misdirection

The Eagles’ pass defense is disciplined and cohesive, especially since DeJean took over in the slot. Quinyon Mitchell has been a lockdown corner as of late – 0.5 yards per coverage snap allowed since Week 6 – and Darius Slay is putting together another solid year, though he will not take the field on Sunday. Isaiah Rodgers is likely to start in his place, though the Eagles could also flip DeJean outside and put Avonte Maddox in the slot.

In either case, the Eagles will continue what they’ve been doing since their Week 5 bye: shutting down the deep ball while quickly closing and tackling after the catch. They have limited opposing quarterbacks to just a 41.0% completion rate on passes over 10 air yards, the fourth-lowest in the NFL in that period.

Those improvements have resulted from DeJean’s addition to the starting unit and improving communication between starting linebackers Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean.

“We’re the glue. We bang with 350, we ran with 4.3. We’re the glue. We’re communicating with the front end and the back end. You’ve got to have good glue for this to be cohesive.”https://t.co/EmWuOqqa0h

— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) November 30, 2024

Monken should focus on two things against such a confident, competent defense: sow chaos and target the weak links. He has plenty of pre-snap trickery to cloud the picture for the defense, whether that be inverted formations, bunches/stacks with his pass-catchers, or motion with Zay Flowers.

Flowers has feasted off motion this year. On 156 snaps in motion (fourth-most), he has 278 yards (third-most), with 195 coming after the catch (third-most) and +53 YAC over expected (fifth-most). Mixing up pre-snap alignments with a healthy dose of motion will help Flowers find exploitable matchups and give him free releases into space off the line of scrimmage.

This is also a time where synergy between the run and pass game is crucial. Using motion and play-fakes to get the Eagles moving laterally will open up holes on the ground and passing lanes through the air.

There’s a strong correlation between the Ravens’ use of play-action and their record. All four of their losses had play action rates of 20% or less, while all eight wins were 21.7% or higher. That’s not to say Monken needs to hit a play-action quota, but clearly, more is better. He’ll be tempted to try some deep shots – which he should – but some short and intermediate play-action concepts should be called earlier in the game with Andrews and Likely chipping edge rushers before releasing into drag or flat routes.

Monken can also pull out some two-RB ‘pony’ sets using RPOs and play action to stress defenses with Henry on the ground and Hill leaking out of the backfield as a pass-catcher. That will hold linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and force the Eagles’ young DBs to diagnose what’s in front of them instead of focusing on their matchups.

Ravens Defense vs. PHI Offense

Dictate Down and Distance

The Ravens’ run defense has been outstanding this year, limiting opponents to 3.5 yards per play, 77.9 yards per game, and -0.15 EPA/rush, ranking first or second in each category. They’ve faced a number of solid running backs this year, but no one nearly as dangerous as Saquon Barkley, not to mention Jalen Hurts, a running threat in his own right.

The Eagles’ offense has a similar philosophy as the Ravens: use synergy between the run and pass game to slow down defenses and open up space. Their offensive line is one of the best-coached units every year, and this season is no different. They execute every type of run imaginable, and now they have a running back with the vision and athleticism to take full advantage of his blocking. Barkley’s excellence this year has allowed the Eagles to dictate down and distance on their drives, consistently setting up short-yardage late-downs that the run game can easily convert.

The Ravens will have to win on multiple fronts to control the Eagles’ run game and dictate terms on defense. Baltimore was porous against J.K. Dobbins last week before he went down with a knee injury, but having Roquan Smith and potentially Michael Pierce back in the lineup will be crucial to a bounce-back performance. The defensive line has been active and disciplined, able to create penetration themselves while holding their gaps so their linebackers can step up and make tackles.

The loss of Kyle Van Noy will be impactful, as he has quietly been one of the team’s best run defenders off the edge this year. The Eagles run the ball efficiently inside and outside of the tackles, so Tavius Robinson will need to step up as an edge-setter against Lane Johnson. That is a big ask for a second-year Day 3 player, so Marlon Humphrey and the strong-side linebacker and safety need to flow to the ball and provide support on the edge.

There are two key strength-on-strength matchups the Ravens need to win: under center and explosive runs. Barkley is averaging 2.6 yards before contact from under center runs, though his 23.8% under center rate this year is much lower than his career average of 59.5%. His 29 explosive runs also lead the NFL. The Ravens, meanwhile, have allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on under center runs this year, the third-lowest in the NFL, and their 4.5% explosive run rate allowed is the second-lowest in the league.

The Ravens have to keep Barkley from grinding out yards on the ground to interrupt the flow of the Eagles offense while making sure he can’t get loose for a breakaway touchdown.

Continue The Evolution

Zach Orr deserves a ton of credit for his defense’s success over the last two weeks, especially without Smith against the Chargers. He has managed to incorporate more disciplined pass defense with Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington at deep safety while maintaining superb run defense. Hamilton’s alignment depth has dropped to 6.2 yards from 7.3 last year, and his changes in the last two weeks have been even more dramatic. Just 14.9% of his snaps have come in the box in Weeks 11 and 12, with 73.9% coming as a true safety. In Weeks 1-10, Hamilton’s alignment was more diverse, with a true safety rate of just 26.3%.

Orr is onto something here. It’s easy enough to put Hamilton and Washington at deep safety in nickel, but dime is another issue. Rather than force Marcus Williams back on the field, he’s putting Tre’Davious White on the outside and flipping Brandon Stephens to the inside where he can more easily locate the ball in coverage. Stephens and Marlon Humphrey switched between the slot and the box against the Chargers.

Those formations should be the go-to on obvious passing downs, but Smith will need to stay in nickel on early downs and trust his ability to defend the run with light boxes. That will allow the Ravens to remain disciplined against play action with defensive backs able to focus on their coverage responsibilities.

Another element of the defense that has rounded into form is the pass rush.

The Ravens have 15 sacks in their last four games. The Ravens are 4th in the NFL in sacks per game (3.3)

— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) November 30, 2024

Orr’s blitz rate has remained around the Ravens’ 20.9% season average, but he’s using more games along the defensive line to set up better matchups and create free rushing lanes.

The Eagles have one of the best tackle duos in the league. Lane Johnson’s 6.0% pressure rate allowed is fourth-lowest in the NFL, while Jordan Mailata’s 7.5% is seventh lowest. Odafe Oweh may be able to win some matchups against Mailata, but he’s allowed just one sack on the year. With Van Noy out, Orr will need to scheme up more pressure to get to Hurts without aggressive blitzing, as the Eagles’ QB has figured out how the beat the blitz this year.

Hurts has been brilliant with a time to throw over 2.5 seconds since Week 6, leading the NFL with a 138.7 passer rating and 11.3 yards per attempt. However, his efficiency drops to -0.02 EPA/dropback compared to +0.06 EPA/dropback on throws under 2.5 seconds.

Hurts’ success has largely come from deep balls, completing a league-high 58.4% (+12.3% over expected) and recording 12.9 yards per attempt (third-most) on passes over 10 air yards. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed a league-high 156 yards per game on such attempts, with a 17.7% explosive pass rate allowed (second-highest).

The Ravens should rush four with stunts and twists while staying in two-high coverage to force Hurts to hold onto the ball and work underneath. Either he will take deep shots into double coverage, or he will have to locate his underneath options while avoiding pressure on longer dropbacks.

1-on-1 Matchup: Zack Baun vs. Justice Hill

Eagles linebacker Zack Baun has the highest coverage grade (91.5) among NFL linebackers this season. He has been excellent limiting opposing tight ends and running backs with solid mirroring and excellent coverage after the catch.

Since the Eagles don’t blitz very often, Justice Hill won’t need to worry about Baun in pass protection. Instead, he will need to find ways to be an outlet for Jackson and pick up yards after the catch on checkdowns against Baun while also beating the young linebacker on designed routes.

Baun’s worst games this year have come against Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and Austin Ekeler, three pass-catching running backs whose teams scheme up creative ways to get them the ball in the air. Monken needs to find similar ways to set Hill up for success. That can be on screens with Tyler Linderbaum targeting Baun to clear a path downfield, or with Hill going into motion and forcing Baun to defend in space.

The Eagles’ secondary has the potential to make life very difficult for the Ravens’ receivers, so Hill needs to contribute in the passing game to make sure Jackson has a place to go with the ball.

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