The Return of Aggressive Harbs

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 12 Games

The play of the game was a 2-yard gain in the second quarter. That’s not something you can say all the time.  It’s rare for such a low-yardage play in the first half to play such a huge role in the outcome.  But it was the clear turning point.  I’ll let CBS Sports set the stage:

Baltimore faced a fourth-and-1 on its own 16-yard line after Los Angeles stuffed a run by Derrick Henry for no gain. The Ravens stunningly kept their offense on the field to go for it inside their own 20 while trailing 10-7, but then they let the clock hit the two-minute warning. Surely they wouldn’t still be going for it after the break, right? Well, that’s exactly what they did, [setting up a] quarterback sneak by tight end Mark Andrews, who took the snap under center…

Andrews converted.  But – they were on their own 16!  That’s insane aggressiveness for this call.  No one does that!  CBS again:

How rare of an occurrence was that fourth-down conversion inside of a team’s own 20-yard line? Well, it was the deepest in a team’s own territory this season, and it was the first fourth-down conversion inside a team’s own 20 in the first half of a game since the 2012 Rams on a fake punt, per ESPN Stats & Info.

This didn’t even have any fake-punt trickery around it.  They just lined up and brute-forced their way to a first down. There are SO MANY things to say about this.

First, this gutsy decision won the game for the Ravens.  If they punt here, they give the ball to Justin Herbert with four timeouts (if you include the two-minute warning).  Already down 10-7, with a punt there’s a strong chance the Ravens head to the locker room down 17-7.  That’s a problem, on the road against a good team.  Instead, they convert and keep the ball.

It’s a great job of feeling the flow of the game by John Harbaugh.  The Ravens offense was sort of desultory and not getting on-track.  The Chargers were sort of lulling them into a certain type of game.  Harbs said hell no, and broke the pattern.  “I just felt like we could make it,” he told the sideline reporter. “No guts, no glory.”  Harbs has been a data-driven decision maker on 4th-downs for most of his career.  In contrast, this seemed to be a gut-feel decision.

Second, and surprisingly, the 4th-down bot liked the decision:

—> BAL (7) @ LAC (10) BAL has 4th & 1 at the BAL 16, Q2 02:00

Recommendation (STRONG): Go for it (+2.3 WP)
Actual play: Direct snap to M.Andrews. M.Andrews up the middle to BLT 18 for 2 yards. pic.twitter.com/j3cj3FKu77

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) November 26, 2024

While the 4th-down bot is aggressive, it’s not insane.  I wouldn’t expect it to endorse going for in from one’s own 16.  The key driver on the math seems to be the almost 75% likelihood of picking up the conversion.  The Ravens were already on the losing end of the win probability, given the current score, so they don’t really lose that much win probability if they failed to convert.  And the probability of failing was low.

Back in 2019 Harbs (our Harbs) was the darling of the analytics community for being aggressive on 4th down.  But after many failures on 4th-down over the course of 2020-22 (you’ll remember if you try…) Harbs moved away from it in 2023, playing more straight-up or conservative.  But Monday night Harbs had the Ravens go for it three times.

Q3:

—> BAL (17) @ LAC (16) BAL has 4th & 1 at the BAL 39, Q3 02:38

Recommendation (STRONG): Go for it (+4.9 WP)
Actual play: D.Henry left guard to LAC 34 for 27 yards (D.Henley). pic.twitter.com/A7dR8mciwL

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) November 26, 2024

Q4:

—> BAL (17) @ LAC (16) BAL has 4th & 1 at the LAC 25, Q4 15:00

Recommendation (VERY STRONG): Go for it (+5.5 WP)
Actual play: D.Henry up the middle to LAC 23 for 2 yards (N.Niemann). pic.twitter.com/hBPANJS99m

— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) November 26, 2024

The bot liked all three decisions.  Harbs faced two other 4th-down decisions; one that the bot called a toss-up, where he had Justin Tucker kick a Field Goal, and another that the bot called a “medium-go” where he had Jordan Stout punt.  A very active decision-making day on 4th down for Harbs.

And the decisions WORKED!  They converted all the go’s; and on the non-go’s, Tucker made the one Field Goal and Stout had a good punt (although they gave up a big return).

The first go-for-it decision was the key one.  They convert that, and five plays later they’re in the end zone.  Instead of going down 10, they take a lead that they would never relinquish.  Changed the whole game.  It also extended their streak, which wound up with them scoring on five consecutive possessions from early in the 2nd quarter to late in the 4th.

Thirdly, look at that formation and personnel for the 4th-down try.  You’ve got Derrick Henry and Pat Ricard lined up behind Mark Andrews, to do the pushing; then Lamar behind them, deep.  If you’re the defense you have to respect the push, and you have to compress your formation and surge IN to try to stop it.  But – with this personnel, the Ravens could get clever.  Suppose Andrews takes this snap and pivots?  If Herny broke around left and, and Ricard broke around right end, Lamar could take a pitch from Andrews and go either way.

In the above pic, there’s more bodies on the left side of the hash than on the right.  If Lamar takes a pitch from Andrews and follows Ricard around right end, I’m not sure anyone keeps him out of the end zone, even from 85 yards away.

There’s more!  Look at who’s lined up on the left side at Tight End.  Nelson Agholor!  Now, maybe that’s supposed to be Charlie Kolar – news came out Wednesday that Kolar broke his arm during the game and is out four weeks.  But, as lined up here, if Lamar takes a pitch from Andrews and Agholor runs a short out, a pass to Agholor is at least a first down, and maybe him running down the sideline for a lot more.  This is set up for short yardage, but there may be some huge surprises hidden in there.

Fourth – did the Ravens purposely put a Tush-Push play on tape this week, for the Eagles coaches to watch leading up to the game??  That’s next-level strategizing from Harbs.

A lot going on in that 4th-down try.

Go for Two??

I didn’t see the logic on the 2-pt attempt when I was watching the game.  To reset the situation, the Ravens were up 17-16, and then early in the 4th quarter they scored a touchdown.  The six points extended the lead to seven points; an extra point would make it eight.  But Harbs elected to go for two.  That would make a nine-point lead if they made it, but leave a seven-point lead if they failed.  I wondered, why not just kick the XP and take the eight-point lead??  An eight-pioint lead in the 4th sounds pretty good to me.

User Jonboy79 on the RSR board explained the logic in a way that made sense to me.

Yes, with the seven-pointt lead, the Ravens could lose on a Chargers touchdown and 2-point conversion.  But if the Chargers scored a 4th quarter touchdown, they’d need an extra point to tie.  Most likely they take the tie; it would be a departure not to.  So the Ravens don’t lose anything by eschewing the extra point.

But if they get the 2-pt conversion, it pushes the lead to nine.  It requires two drives by the Chargers.

So basically the 2-pt try is all upside (requiring two scoring drives from the opponent) with no downside (opponent still needs a “try” after Touchdown to tie).  I didn’t see it during the game, but it’s very strategic thinking.

Lamar’s Interceptions

Speaking of the RSR boards, user Culex posted something fascinating.

Lamar, as we know, is having a great season.  He leads the league in Passer Rating and co-leads the league in touchdown passes.  He has 27 TD passes to 3 Interceptions.  What Culex posted was gifs of the Interceptions.  Here are Lamar’s three interceptions on the season.

Number 1:

Here’s reverse angle on that one:

Number 2:

Number 3

On every damn one of them Lamar put the ball in the receiver’s hands!  EVERY ONE!  He legit could have 27 TDs and zero INTs right now.  He’s really having an incredible season.

Outcoached? Redux

Last week we discussed someone getting “outcoached” in the matchup between Harbs and Mike Tomlin.  Well, maybe that should come up again this week.  In the Family Feud, Jim Harbuagh is 0-3 against Big Brother. Has Jim been “outcoached”?

I’m going to say no – and yes.

In each game, it seems to me that the elder Harbs had a team that was slightly further along the development path than the little brother’s team.

• In 2011 Jim was in his first year with the Niners, John was in his fourth, with a 4th-year QB and Offensive Coordinator, and a fully established defense.
• In the 2012 Super Bowl, Jim had the more talented & physical roster, but John had a team of wily veterans who were ready to take advantage of every early break, and a more experienced QB.
• Monday night, Jim was again in his first year with his team. John had a more complete roster and a more established offense.

Overall it is predictable that the Jim-coached team would lose those matchups.  I wouldn’t put any of those losses as Jim being “outcoached.”  Those teams were pretty evenly matched, but they had different strengths, and John’s teams had important advantages.  Jim’s coaching didn’t cost his teams those games.  However, despite that, I would also say that John coached his face off in the second & third matchups.

In the Super Bowl, John had his team readier than Jim did.  He had a speedy return specialist and a special teams blocking scheme in place to score a touchdown on a kickoff.  He had a complete offense.  Jim’s team was down 28-6 by the time they got the ball in the 2nd half.  Then the lights went out. The way the Niners played after the lights came back on illustrated the great talent that Niners roster had.  Personally, I also think the older Ravens players tightened up during the long stoppage in play.

Monday night, John’s 4th-down decisions changed the whole flow of the game, and led directly to the Ravens victory.  Yes, this Ravens team is better than the Chargers.  But John’s interventions broke a bad spell for his team and led directly to the victory.

It’s weird and asymmetrical – you could legit accuse me of trying to have it both ways – but while I think Jim’s coaching did not cost his team the game(s), which means he didn’t get outcoached, I think John’s coaching gave his team the game, which means the opposite.  Sounds weird, but that’s how I see it.

With the family holiday upon us, it’s fun to imagine how this victory plays in the Harbaugh ancestral homestead.  I asked in the family chat whether, if God told Our Harbs before the season that he would split the Steelers and Chargers games, but Harbs could pick which was the win and which the loss – which would Harbs pick??  Everyone told me Harbs is too much the coach of the Ravens, too much about the team the team the team NOT to wish for beating the Steelers.  That’s probably right.

But – maybe – just maybe – in his old age – with his coaching days long done – when he’s looking back over the years while sitting with his brother – it’s easy to imagine him in his heart-of-hearts savoring the 3-0 record against his brother.

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

(Data from PFR)

Not a high-volume game.  Lamar completed only 16 passes for 177 yards.  That’s not enough passing yards to go around, for anyone to post big numbers.  But Lamar was over 8 yards-per-attempt on the day, so there are some good efficiency numbers for the receivers.

My excuse this week for the tilde of almost in Bateman’s row, in the QS column, is: in addition to his stats above, Bateman also drew a Pass Interference call for 12 yards in that drive at the end of the first half to lead to the Ravens first Touchdown.  In fact, it was the play right before he caught the TD.  If you add in one catch for 12 yards, then his stats for the day are four targets with three catches for 55 yards, giving a yards-per-target of 13.75.  Well within the QS parameters.

Honestly, I never thought of DPI calls when I started capturing the “QS” stat.  It seems to me that they should count toward that; an instance where throwing to the player keeps the chains moving. I’ll think about it over the next week; I may wind up broadening the definition.

Mark Andrews continues his hot streak.  To recap, for the first four weeks of the season he didn’t look like himself.  His efficiency stats were about league average.  But since then:

That YTS number would be third in the entire league.  For reference, here are the league leaders in Receiving YTS for the season:

It flies below the radar because Andrews hasn’t had one of those take-over-the-game volume days.  He hasn’t had even 70 yards in a game this season; low for him.  But he’s been killing it from an efficiency standpoint these past eight games.

Zay Flowers with his 5th multi-explosive game of the last eight.  He’s the “volume” guy in the Ravens pass offense.

Man, I’m starting to feel bad for Diontae Johnson.  That one target to him this game just looked sad. He ran a low crosser late in the 1st quarter; the ball went way over where his head would’ve been – but it wouldn’t have mattered, because he got his feet tangled with the defender and just tripped & fell. In four games as a Raven he’s shown nothing.  It’s unusual for a pretty-good player to look that useless.  He’s looked SO bad that I have to believe that he isn’t confident in the offense yet; overthinking etc.  I imagine he’s looking forward to the bye to get his bearings.

Season stats & Leaderboard

Here are your full-season stats to date:

(Data from PFR except last 3 cols)

Tylan Wallace has caught every damn thing thrown to him this season. This may not be the most sophisticated take in the world, but like: how about throw to him MORE?  At least until one falls incomplete.

Flowers is 13th in the league in receptions, 5th in yards.  Bateman is 32nd in yards, 14th in yards-per-target.  Flowers and Bateman together are a quality pair of WRs – look to the far right of the picture in this tweet:

https://twitter.com/throwthedamball/status/1861461057002213697

Lamar leads the league in Passing Yardage, Passing TDs (tied with Burrow), TD%, Passer Rating, QBR, and Net Yds per Attempt.  He’s second in Passing YTS:

Your Ravens are still the #1 offense by DVOA.  They’re #1 in Yards-per-play, and Red Zone TD%.  They’re 2nd in points-per-drive, 3rd in 3rd-down conversions, and 4th in Scoring pctg.

With this win and the Steelers loss on Thursday, the Ravens playoff odds by DVOA have ticked back up to 99.4%.  DVOA has them as the #2 favorite to win the Super Bowl:

Next Up: Happy Thanksgiving!

Then, the Eagles come to roost.  Huge matchup.  They’re one of the best teams in the league: 9-2 on the season, #5 overall by DVOA with the #5 D.  Surprisingly they’re only 12th offense; good, but not what you’d expect from a team with Saquon Barkley going insane and A.J. Brown leading the league in receiving YTS.

One thing I’ve mentioned about this Ravens team is: When they play an opponent who does NOT have a dominant, All-Pro type on the D-line, the Ravens win.  When they play an opponent who DOES have a dominant, All-Pro type on the D-line, the Ravens lose.

• KC – Chris Long
• Raidaz – Maxximum Crosby
• Brownies – Myles Garrett
• Steelers – T.J. Watt and bonus Cam Heyward.   (Interestingly, Harbaugh coached Heyward’s dad Ironhead at Pitt in 1987.)

That’s concerning, with Jalen Carter, Milton Williams & Josh Sweat coming to town.  Also: the Ravens have been the worst defense against “#1 receivers” in the league this year.  That’s concerning, with Brown and DeVonta Smith (perhaps missing with injury) on the Eagles.

This profiles as an extremely tough game.  An game easy to lose.  So with that said, here are three items of good news, from most fatalistic viewpoint to actual good news:

• Losing out-of-conference has much less impact on playoff seeding than losing in-conference would. (Or in-division!)
• It’s a measuring stick game against a legit Super Bowl contender. If the playoffs started today, the Eagles would be the NFC’s #2 seed.
• Lamar is 22-1 against NFC teams on his career.
• The Ravens are tough to beat in Baltimore.
  

Should be a very interesting game.

Best wishes for a great holiday weekend to you & yours.

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