Affinity at Serangoon Price

• Over the weekend two of the greatest projects in District 19, Affinity at Serangoon (Oxley Holdings) and The Garden Residences (JV between Wingtai and Keppel Land) were launched on the market and collectively secured over 170 buyers.

• The build-up to the launch was widely anticipated whilst the take-up for these projects is a good pre-cursor in the demand for new units in the location which will be likely to see a good level of new supply from recent en blocs.

• Predicated on media reports both projects saw “healthy” first weekend sales, with Affinity at Serangoon securing 112 buyers (out of 300 units launched) and The Garden Residences selling more than 60 units.

• Sales for Affinity at Serangoon was well spread over one-bedders to four-bedders-plus-study apartments with three out of ten strata houses sold at typically S$2.33m.

• Costs for both projects set a new benchmark for the location with Affinity at Serangoon achieving a typical selling price of S$1,550 psf while Garden Residences units were sold at a touch higher at S$1,660psf.

• Predicated on selling prices if sustained, these translate right into a margin of 14% (The Garden Residences) and 19% (Affinity at Serangoon) respectively.

How can they compare?

• Predicated on marketing materials by agents, we do observe that Oxley’s Affinity at Serangoon has more varied unit-types (by virtue to be the bigger estate) and have more flexibility and space to focus on a larger array of family types.

• Comparing the 1/2/3-bedroom units, it seems that Affinity at Serangoon’s average unit sizes (by type) are generally bigger by 30-50 sqft.

• Therefore, we feel that buyers that are restricted by total quantum will prefer slightly larger units at Affinity at Serangoon vis-à-vis The Garden Residences. The differentiating factor will then come from buyer perception of “top quality and prestige” from a Keppel-Wingtai project as compared to “practicality and value” from Oxley. Who will win? We will know in time.

More choices for homebuyers as competition gets hotter in the vicinity but upcoming projects have higher breakeven points

• Given your competitors, buyers’attentions appear to be split and we believe this had somewhat affected the weekend sell-through rates for both projects.

• The journey while early, continues to be long with near 1,665 units for both projects (1,052 for Affinity at Serangoon and 613 for The Garden Residences) looking for buyers.

• Given that both projects are located near a sprawling Serangoon landed estate and a sizeable population residing in nearby HDB flats, we feel that inherent demand for upgraders (new families) to be located near existing homes will remain strong.

• While still early, we do observe that in the pipeline, other projects in District 19 (former Rio Casa and former Florence Regency) which are expected to add another 2,800 units (estimated 1,400 units each) have been targeted to launch in the coming months. This might mean more choices for buyers and sales momentum could slow somewhat.

• Independent of the former Rio Casa development which will be won by Oxley where we believe the timing of launch and strategy may be managed, the former Florence Regency site’s (won by Logan Property) higher breakeven (estimated at S$1,400 psf or above) will need the incumbent projects to accomplish better to be able to achieve higher selling prices.

• Singhaiyi, with two projects at How Sun Drive (former How Sun Park and Sun Rosier) with near 380 units in the wings, will need rosier times with breakeven prices in the north of S$1,600-1,800 psf.

• This sets the stage for the upcoming 2 Woodleigh property developments. In light with this, prices above S$2,000 psf might not seem all that impossible now.

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