Is Modi’s Foreign Policy Confused or Strategic?

By Sajjad Shaukat

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visits to Russia and Austria have sparked a controversial debate over his foreign policy. Modi’s shrewd attempt to balance the strategic partnership with the US, while maintaining deep ties with Russia has raised questions.

PM Modi’s visit, greeting him as his “dear friend”, as the Indian leader made his first trip to the country since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

During Modi’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he received Russia’s highest award, the Order of St Andrew the Apostle, but faced criticism for the timing, coinciding with a Russian attack on a Kyiv children’s hospital. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy expressed disappointment, while in India; the visit was praised as a demonstration of “strategic autonomy”.

The tangible outcomes of the visit were minimal, with nine agreements signed focusing mainly on trade and investment promotion. A significant deal was the commitment to return 35 Indian citizens deceived into fighting for the Russian army in Ukraine.

The anticipated signing of the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS) did not occur. RELOS would have facilitated logistical support for military operations and was expected to last five years with automatic renewal. Despite strong defense ties with Russia, India signed a similar agreement with the US in 2016.

India and Russia boast a long-standing partnership in nuclear energy. Together, they have built reactors at Kudankulam, Tamil Nadu (two operational), and discussed building six more advanced units at a new site. This collaboration likely includes a long-term uranium supply pact for the existing plant.

New Delhi continues to purchase significant amounts of oil from Russia despite US reservations and has also acquired the S-400 missile system.

Reports suggest that India has even assisted Ukraine and sent arms and weapons to the latter clandestinely. New Delhi’s longstanding ties with Moscow have provided reliable weapons, diplomatic support, and civilian nuclear technology.

In this regard, Al Jazeera wrote: “Putin embraced Modi at his home at Novo-Ogaryovo just outside Moscow on July 8, 2024, and toured him around his residence ahead of official talks in the Kremlin…Putin told Modi that he was “very happy” to see him…Our official talks are tomorrow, while today in this comfortable, cozy setting we can probably discuss the same issues, but unofficially, Putin was quoted as saying”.

Al Jazeera elaborated: “Modi posted photos of his arrival in Moscow on X, in both Russian and English, saying he was looking forward to further deepening the Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership between our nations…Modi last travelled to Russia in 2019…Russia remains a key supplier of cut-price oil and weapons to India…India now gets more than 40 percent of its oil imports from Russia. Modi notably missed last week’s summit in Kazakhstan of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a security grouping founded by Moscow and Beijing”.

Meanwhile, Western countries have also cultivated ties with India as a bulwark against China and its growing influence in the Asia Pacific, while pressuring it to distance itself from Russia.

New Delhi is also part of the so-called Quad grouping with Austria, Japan and the US, which positions itself against China in the Asia-Pacific region.

The US State Department on July 8, this year said that Washington has raised concerns with India about its relationship with Russia amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

In this respect, State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters: “We would urge India, as we do any country when it engages with Russia, to make clear that any resolution to the conflict in Ukraine needs to be one that respects the UN Charter that respects Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Ukraine’s sovereignty. India is a strategic partner with whom we engage in a full and frank dialogue, and that includes our concerns about the relationship with Russia”.

Analysts say Modi is expected to seek to continue close relations with Russia, given Moscow’s role as a major defence supplier for India.

Analysts also opine that India’s neutral stance on the war in Ukraine has bolstered Putin’s efforts to counter what he calls the West’s domination of global affairs.

An analyst at the Centre for Russia, Europe, Asia Studies, told the AP: “In my view, he (Modi) is trying to demonstrate that he is not a vassal to China, that he has options, that Russia is still a great power”.

Indian Secretary of Foreign Affairs Vinay Mohan Kwatra told reporters that due to strong energy cooperation, India-Russia trade increased to nearly $65bn in the 2023-24 financial year.

Imports from Russia touched $60bn and exports from India $4bn in the 2023-24 financial year, Kwatra stated. India’s financial year runs from April to March.

He indicated that India was trying to correct the trade imbalance with Russia by increasing its exports.

New Delhi’s top exports to Moscow include drugs and pharmaceutical products, telecom instruments, iron and steel, marine products and machinery. Its top imports from Russia include crude oil and petroleum products, coal and coke, pearls, precious and semiprecious stones, fertiliser, vegetable oil, gold and silver.

Besides, Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Austria on July 10, 2024, marking the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to the country in 41 years since former PM Indira Gandhi’s trip in 1983. Modi, who recently concluded a two-day visit to Russia, expressed his excitement about this special visit, highlighting the shared values and commitment to global betterment which bind India and Austria.

Upon landing in Vienna, Premier Modi took to X to share his anticipation for the scheduled engagements, which include high-level talks with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, interactions with the Indian community, and various other programs.

Putin has framed various organizations as evidence of a new “multipolar world order” emerging from what, he argues, is the West’s moral rot and economic decline.

In fact, Modi, too, has embraced India’s rise in a new multipolar reality. But, he has pursued shrewd diplomacy—a so-called balancing act to maintain good relations with Western economies with which New Delhi does have much of its business.

Notably, Russians must keep in mind that Indian Hindus are followers of Chanakya (Say some thing else and do some thing else). It is true in case of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s trip to Moscow.

In conclusion, Modi’s policy which has been seen by many analysts as opportunistic is unlikely to be effective. His visit to Russia bolstered his domestic standing, but raises questions about his foreign policy strategy. The trip showed India’s willingness to engage with Russia, but lacked substantial gains, potentially harming India’s international reputation.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

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