US #TreasuryBond Review $TLT $IEF - CBO Warns of Rising Deficits and Slowing Economy

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CBO Warns of Rising Deficits and Slowing Economy

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has shared a family-friendly warning, suggesting that the United States might see bigger federal budget deficits and a slower economy in the years ahead. This gentle heads-up assumes families will remain in their homes, enjoy their vacations, and travel to the EU using Euros without any hiccups. In its latest long-term budget outlook for 2025 to 2055, released in March 2025, the CBO predicts that federal deficits will climb from 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055—well above the 3.9% average seen over the last 30 years (1995–2024). This uptick is mostly due to fast-rising interest costs and required spending increases on programs like Social Security and Medicare, all while the population and workforce get smaller. Together, these factors create quite a challenging mix.

The CBO also projects that federal debt held by the public will rise sharply, reaching 156% of GDP by 2055, up from 100% in 2025. This mounting debt is expected to slow economic growth, with real GDP growth forecasted to decline from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.4% by 2055. Factors contributing to this slowdown include an aging population, reduced labor force participation, and weaker population gains, with the CBO noting that without immigration, the U.S. population would begin to shrink by 2033.

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We call this warning family friend, because it leaves out a few things.

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Source: http://www.edegrootinsights.com/2025/04/us-treasurybond-review-tlt-ief-cbo.html