ES Morning Update December 2nd 2024

The market made a new high on Friday, as well as other indexes.  It’s possible that the Alternative Wave Count has been killed, but it’s too early to tell for sure. While I could see one or two indexes making a slightly higher high too many of them did, meaning we might be back to the Main Wave Count and in the final 5th wave up, which will likely go up to 6300 or more I suspect.

It’s too early to know for certain as this week is a bearish period, so we could still see the drop happen that I’ve been looking to start for awhile now.  But we’ll need to see support levels break as if we don’t then this bearish period will just be more consolidation before the last move up to 6300+ as covered in the Main Wave Count.

I was quite bearish on Friday but I need to remain open minded to being wrong and the market making one last move up.  For that to happen we’ll need to see the market hold support this week.  A breakout of this chop zone the market has been in for awhile should happen this week and/or next, but I just don’t know which way?  I lean toward a down move as I think they will not put in the final high this month but drag it out into January.  That means a down move would be needed first to get everyone super bearish again, and then a face ripper squeeze could last right into the inauguration on the 20th of January.  But that’s just a gut feel and nothing more.

I will add that bullish sentiment is very high right now and that as I bounce around the internet to read what other stock market traders are thinking I notice that everyone seems to think we will go sideways this week with a small pullback possible and then another rally up into either late December or sometime in January before we see a 8-10% pullback.

I think we all know by now that if too many people (and I mean good traders and forecasters) are all thinking the same thing it rarely happens like that.  That “suggests” we’ll either see a strong rally up here in the short term (1-2 weeks) to top out earlier then most think… or we do the opposite and drop hard here in the short term as not many are expecting it.

Now I point this out because I’ve been a victim of the same mindset myself and found out the hard way that when it didn’t play out like I, and many others thought it would.  So if we get a choppy pullback this week like many are think I’d be super nervous about next week thinking it was just consolation before another big breakout rally.  The opposite might just happen and instead we see all the consolation just be a bull trap before the bottom falls out as we go into mid-December.

Have a blessed day.