Aviation Policy News: An air traffic control corporation is back on the policy agenda

In this issue:

• ATC corporation back on the policy agenda
• Reusable launch vehicles and the shortage of launch sites
• Europe’s aviation-climate conundrum
• U.S. airline competition continues to thrive
• Smaller cities getting new air service
• More troubles for eVTOLs
• News notes
• Quotable quotes

Air Traffic Control Corporation Back on the Policy Agenda

Last decade, a large coalition was formed in an effort to separate the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and turn it into a user-funded public utility (analogous to a toll road). The coalition included the Business Roundtable, all the major airlines except Delta, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, several pilots’ unions, and a large number of former U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) and FAA officials.

The effort found a champion in Rep. Bill Shuster, then chair of the House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee, which twice approved versions of the air traffic control (ATC) corporation proposal, but it never reached the House floor, and it had no known supporters in the Senate. Then-President Donald Trump held a White House event in support of the bill, but invited only Republican officials, despite strong support from Democratic officials who’d been involved in a similar air traffic control reform effort during the Clinton administration.

Why bring up this topic again? There are several reasons. First, the deficiencies of the existing U.S. ATC system are even more glaringly obvious than they were last decade. The last two years have included:

• A nationwide ground-stop due to a defective, obsolete Notices to Air Missions (NOTAMs) system;
• An alarming number of near-collisions that would likely have been prevented if more airports had been equipped with safety equipment such as ASDE-X;
• A shocking FAA report on a wide array of shortcomings, authored by former senior officials;
• An even more damning indictment by an unprecedented GAO report on numerous FAA systems that are deficient, put safety at risk, and with many of them not even scheduled to be addressed until many years in the future.

Today’s public knows far more about the ATC system’s shortcomings, but would anyone be prepared to tackle this complicated subject again? Here are some points to consider:

• President Donald Trump supported this change during his first term;
• His new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) entity is seeking large-scale reforms of the federal government;
• ATC reform is included in the DOT chapter of the Heritage Foundation Project 2025 book;
• Former Congressman Bill Shuster has called for reviving this reform effort;
• New House Transportation & Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves drafted key provisions of the second (improved) version of the ATC legislation that was passed by that committee in 2018; and,
• Sen. Ted Cruz, now chairman of the Commerce Committee, held a hearing on Dec. 12, 2024, at which my Reason Foundation colleague Marc Scribner made the case for air traffic control reform.

The idea is definitely in circulation. With the next FAA reauthorization bill more than four years away, there is time to rebuild an ATC reform coalition, ideally with broader aviation and business sector backing.

This newsletter will provide a series of articles on this subject during 2025.

P.S. Here are two recent videos dealing with the need for ATC reform:

• Blaze TV “Countdown to the Next Aviation Disaster”
• PBS “White House Chronicle” interview

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Reusable Launch Vehicles Leading to Spaceport Shortage

Several years ago, I wrote an article in this newsletter about companies and agencies in a number of states seeking to create new space launch sites. Many of these were naïve, with an implicit model of “build it and they will come.” But with the rapidly expanding pace of space launches—157 in 2024, according to an article in the Wall Street Journal— it’s time to look into additional capacity. The vast majority of last year’s launches were SpaceX launches using re-usable boosters, and all but 17 of the 157 total were launched from the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (67), Vandenberg Space Force Base (47), and Kennedy Space Center (26).

Most orbital launches take place at facilities on a coast (Florida, California, and Texas) so as to avoid long flights toward orbit over populated areas. Several actual and would-be launch sites not on coasts, such as Spaceport America in New Mexico, serve launches whose first stage is an aircraft that launches a rocket once it reaches a high altitude. Several private ventures of this type have abandoned such efforts.

A few coastal launch sites are under development, one in Maine and another in Michigan, and the existing Pacific Spaceport Complex in Alaska is lucky to get three launches per year, generally from small and/or start-up rocket companies.

With so few fully suitable new locations for orbital launches, the Space Force has projects under way to add capacity to its existing launch sites in Florida and California. How much SpaceX can expand its Starbase on the Gulf Coast in Texas remains to be seen, so the company is developing Starship launch facilities at the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.

As in the early days of jet airliners, where airports had to deal with increased noise exposure (often by expanding the airport footprint, where possible), orbital spaceports must cope with comparable externalities, especially from super launch vehicles such as NASA’s SLS and SpaceX’s Starship.

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Europe’s Aviation-Climate Conundrum

Airlines in Europe are fighting plans to limit capacity at European airports. A battle continues over the Dutch government’s plans to impose an annual cap of 478,000 flights at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport. KLM Royal Dutch Airline’s CEO released an open letter to the Dutch infrastructure minister last month, urging the government to reconsider—to no avail. In the United Kingdom, the governmental pressure is somewhat less, and London Stansted is hoping to get planning permission to increase its current passenger cap from 43 million to 51 million by the late 2030s. It argues that increases in the size of airliners using the airport will enable more passengers without exceeding its current cap of 274,000 flights per year. Dublin Airport in Ireland breached its passenger cap of 32 million passengers in 2024.

Meanwhile, two major trade associations are battling over airport capacity as affected by the European slot system. Airline group International Air Transport Association (IATA) released a white paper last month claiming that European airports are not maximizing their capacity under existing slot rules. But the European branch of Airports Council International hit back by charging IATA with hanging on to a “30-years-old EU Airport Slot Regulation” that urgently needs revising to expand actual capacity.

These squabbles seem almost beside the point when environmental lobby groups such as Transportation & Environment (T&E) call for drastic reductions in air travel. Helen Massy Beresford in Aviation Daily cites T&E’s calls for the European Commission to end airport infrastructure growth in Europe, limit corporate travel to 50% of 2019 levels, limit frequent flying, and increase taxes on aviation. T&E’s projections, based on Airbus and Boeing aircraft sales forecasts, claim that aviation emission reductions will be overtaken by aviation growth, with significantly more greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 than today, despite new engines and alternative fuels.

The European Aviation Safety Agency’s (EASA) latest decarbonization report says various regulations have “set [aviation] on the right path to achieve the European Green Deal objectives,” but also notes that Europe still needs “an orderly transition to cleaner aviation while maintaining a high uniform level of safety and connectivity.” EASA’s projections apparently differ from T&E’s.

The conundrum facing European aviation is: What if T&E is correct in its predictions? Should Europe’s aviation be cut back drastically? Let’s consider what is not being addressed in this conflict.

First, what Europe does to restrict aviation will have a very modest impact on global climate. (Its population is only 9.1% of global population.) Huge airliner orders continue to be placed by the leading airlines of China, India, and the Gulf countries. Airbus and Boeing are happy to receive and fulfill those orders.

Secondly, international tourism is a growth industry for a large number of developing countries, which are also investing in modern electricity capacity. Will European agencies seek to expand their reach to these countries’ attempts to modernize their economies and lift more of their populations out of poverty?

What I’m alluding to here is that the benefits of global aviation are being left out of these discussions. Making it very costly to fly (or to drive a personal vehicle) will significantly reduce the well-being of an increasing fraction of global population. I think it’s unlikely that the rich world will be successful in preventing developing countries from modernizing—and that’s a good thing.

Then what about global climate change? The evidence says this is happening, and that emissions of CO2, contrails, and some other factors do, over time, lead to increased temperatures and resulting negative effects. But the first lesson from economics is to go after the low-hanging fruit first—all those changes with low cost per ton of CO2 equivalent prevented. My impression is that aviation likely has among the highest cos per ton; hence, making it zero-carbon would be very costly. So insisting that aviation be cut way back regardless of the loss of benefits is not wise policy.

Another tool in the toolbox is reducing greenhouse effects by interventions such as geoengineering. It’s still considered anathema by most green groups, but it might turn out to be more cost-effective than aggressively pursuing very expensive GHG emission reductions.

Yet another tool is adaptation. Island mini-states a few feet above sea level are unlikely to be savable. Changes in agriculture due to changing temperatures may need a second green revolution.

I’ll close with a few findings by Vaclav Smil of the University of Manitoba in “Halfway Between Kyoto and 2050: Zero Carbon Is Highly Unlikely.” First, after a half-century of targeted energy transition, there has been no absolute global decarbonization of energy supply. Between 1997 and 2022, annual emissions of CO2 from the fossil fuel energy sector rose from about 5.5 billion tons of CO2 equivalent to about 39.3 billion tons (54% increase), Smil finds. Second, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, the total eventual cost of a worldwide energy transition by 2050 is $275 trillion between 2021 and 2050, which would amount to an annual expenditure of 10% of total worldwide GDP for three decades.     

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U.S. Airline Competition Continues to Thrive
By Marc Scribner

In Oct. 2024, the Departments of Justice’s (DOJ) Antitrust Division and the Department of Transportation (DOT) issued a request for information on the state of competition in air transportation in which the agencies sought answers to 57 questions on various topics, including airport access, aircraft manufacturing, airline pricing, and airline rewards programs. The comment period closed on Jan. 7.

The Biden administration adopted a populist approach to competition regulation and antitrust enforcement. This effort was led by lawyers such as Jonathan Kanter at the DOJ Antitrust Division and Lina Khan at the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The New Brandeis movement they represent seeks to discard the careful economic analysis required under the consumer welfare standard for the past half-century and replace it with conflicting claims about power. This is to say, rather than structure competition policy to promote lower prices, increased output, and more innovation, the Neo-Brandeisians believe it should be structured to combat industry consolidation, according to the movement’s 2019 “Utah Statement.”

Critics of the New Brandeis movement have argued that it will politicize competition policy and ultimately harm consumers. While antitrust populism has focused much of its ire on large technology companies, this line of thinking was propagated throughout the Biden administration. One example is FTC Lina Khan’s former chief of staff Jen Howard becoming the chief competition officer at the U.S. Department of Transportation. After Howard’s appointment, DOT initiated a series of aggressive regulatory and legal actions against the U.S. airline industry.

The core assumption underlying Howard’s and Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s hostility to the U.S. airline industry is that it is uncompetitive. Dorothy Robyn, a leading expert on the political economy of regulation and market competition (she literally wrote the book on trucking deregulation), responded to the joint DOJ-DOT request for information with a succinct skewering of the antitrust populist view of airline consolidation. Robyn has had a long and distinguished career in academia, private research, and government—including serving in senior economic policy and agency executive roles under Presidents Clinton and Obama.

Robyn begins her comment letter by acknowledging, “Nowhere is the gap between punditry and reality greater than on the subject of U.S. airline consolidation and competition.” She then explains why common critiques of airline consolidation that followed the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978 are wrong.

First, competition on individual routes has increased, not decreased. As Robyn points out, concerns expressed about nationwide carrier market shares tell us little about the state of airline competition because competition occurs on the route level. When we examine the route level via the last three decades of data on the average number of competitors in U.S. city-pair markets, we see a steady, small increase.

Second, the rise of low-cost (LCC) and ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCC) has chipped away at the national market shares of the legacy network carriers since 2000. The discount carrier market (including Southwest) has nearly doubled its collective market share since 2000, reaching 48% in 2024. In contrast, the legacy network carriers that have consolidated into the Big Three (American, Delta, United) have seen their market share decline from 73% in 2000 to just 52% in 2024.

Robyn also highlights the new airline market, where 90% of U.S. domestic passengers today fly on routes served by at least one discount carrier—with half flying on routes served by a ULCC. Consumers enjoy the benefits of this route-level competition even if they fly on a legacy network carrier. “Because of the fare discipline that discount carriers, generally—not just Southwest—impose,” explains Robyn, “these passengers enjoy lower fares even if they choose to fly on a non-discount carrier.”

Third and finally, airfares continue their long-run decline. Despite air travel demand growing 4% annually in the years following airline deregulation, fares have declined consistently. Depending on the estimate, average inflation-adjusted airfares today are between 30% and 55% lower than they were in 1978. Constrained carrier capacity and the release of pent-up demand in 2022 following the end of many COVID-19 restrictions led to a temporary spike in airfares, but this proved temporary. Once market turmoil settled, Robyn concludes, “by the end of October 2024, air fares were 20 percent below their 2019 (pre-COVID) level, which at the time had marked a historic low.”

It is unclear what will become of this joint DOJ-DOT aviation competition inquiry. The new Trump administration is far less likely to adopt the Biden administration’s combative and counterproductive attitude toward airline consolidation. President Trump has nominated Gail Slater to head the DOJ’s Antitrust Division. She has a background in populist Republican politics as the former economic policy advisor to Vice President J.D. Vance when he served in the Senate. But Slater is no Neo-Brandeisian and has not expressed any interest in targeting the transportation sector for special antitrust scrutiny. And President Trump’s nominees of Sean Duffy as secretary of transportation and Steven Bradbury as deputy secretary of transportation show no indication of being opposed to their sector’s basic market structures.

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Smaller Cities Getting New Air Service

An egregious Jan. 2023 article published by Time has been circulating online among aviation geeks. The article is “Airlines Are Terrible. Small Cities Are Still Paying Them Millions of Dollars to Stay Around,” by Alana Semuels. Its message is basically that “deregulation destroyed the airline industry” and that small cities were the main victims. It quotes a Vanderbilt law professor who laments that deregulation ‘left the fate of small communities to the whims of a free market.’ It also quotes William McGee of the American Economic Liberties Project, which seems to define “economic liberty” as living in a centrally planned economy.

The article basically ignores the growth of low-cost carriers (LCCs) and ultra low-cost carriers (ULCCs) that have gained market share over the past decade. It especially ignores the launch—in 2021—of two of the most promising startup airlines, Avelo and Breeze. Both were begun by seasoned airline executives, and as of Dec. 2024, Avelo served 54 airports and Breeze served 66. Their market niche is offering non-stop service from small airports to larger ones that people would like to reach directly, rather than via transferring at a hub. Although Avelo and Breeze have few overlapping routes, both operate from Tweed New Haven Airport (HVN), which had briefly lost its last American-linked regional operator prior to Avelo’s starting service there in 2021. Last month, Breeze launched 10 new routes from New Haven to destinations such as Fort Myers, Sarasota-Bradenton, Raleigh-Durham, and Norfolk. And in November 2024, Avelo launched its first international route, from Bradley International in Hartford to Montego Bay, Jamaica.

As I have reported previously (“Ultra Low-Cost Carriers Keep Growing,” July 2024), ULCCs Allegiant, Frontier, and a bankrupt but recovering Spirit are experimenting with new business models. Recent headlines in Aviation Daily keep telling this story, such as “Allegiant Air Targets Unserved Markets in 44-Route Expansion” (Nov. 26) and “Frontier Ramps Up Competition with Spirit as It Unveils New Routes” (Nov. 22). In short, smaller cities are precisely the ones this entire sector is focused on connecting to larger cities.

My friend Gary Leff of “View from the Wing” commented on the Time article’s misconceptions in an online aviation forum:

“A lot of these ‘non-stops’ that got sidelined [post-deregulation] were milk runs, and while there may be non-stop city pairs that have disappeared, hubs also mean that smaller cities have far greater frequencies. The total number of flights has skyrocketed, and there are a ton more destinations that small cities can reach one-stop than ever before. I’ll also point out that in almost any other context, four companies controlling 80% of a market would be considered enviable competition. Uniformity in the industry doesn’t stem from an insufficient number of firms. However, if you want [more] competition, you need to address slots and gates, you need to address air traffic congestion, and you need to welcome foreign investment. We should legalize [more] competition, rather than re-create cartels through regulation.” (Used with the author’s permission.)

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More Troubles for eVTOLs

By the end of 2024, aviation media were reporting a widening gap between three leading U.S. electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) developers and their European counterparts. America’s Archer and Beta raised additional funding in the second half of 2024, and their assembly plants (along with Joby’s) will all three be completed by early this year. By contrast, Europe’s Lilium, Vertical, and Volocopter are nearly defunct. Lilium filed for insolvency in October and Volocopter did so at year-end. Vertical landed a new investor at year-end, but Aviation Week analyst Ben Goldstein thinks it faces an uphill climb to certification by 2028. Lilium obtained new investors in January, but its prospects are uncertain.

In a Sept. 9, 2024, article in Aviation Daily, Goldstein pointed out that plans of the U.S. trio to be certified by 2024 and in operation in 2025 proved over-optimistic. He estimates that even these well-funded startups will likely not complete FAA-type certification until 2026. His best-case estimate was achieving certification by late 2025, but that this could extend into 2026, with actual commercial operation potentially not beginning until 2027.

Against this backdrop, several smaller startups are shifting focus. Some are switching to development of subscale eVTOL drones, as Goldstein reported in Aviation Daily on Nov. 25. Others, including Archer and Beta, are adding hybrid models, in particular to meet the needs of the Air Force’s Agility Prime program, which requires longer range than battery-electric eVTOLs can deliver. Both Archer and Beta have Agility Prime contracts for such eVTOLs.

As if this emerging industry did not have enough problems, a recently released FAA study identified “hurricane-force levels of eVTOL downwash,” as reported by JDA Journal on Jan. 13. Released in late December, the report, “Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) Downwash and Outwash Surveys” found that downwash and outwash pose hazards for people, aircraft, and objects in the landing area. The study used three (unidentified) eVTOL prototypes to measure DWOW velocity. The maximum velocity recorded was almost 100 mph at a distance of 41 feet from the center of the landing area. The study found that “The eVTOL aircraft surveyed produced high-velocity DWOW flow fields that could easily go beyond the safety area of a vertiport.” The study suggested that the safety dimensions of vertiports need to be reconsidered to protect ground crew and passengers. One implication may be that initial plans to locate some vertiports atop existing structures, such as parking garages, may not be realistic.

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News Notes

Atlantic Aviation Buys Ferrovial Vertiports
FBO operator Atlantic Aviation earlier this month acquired Ferrovial’s recently launched Vertiports operations, renaming it Vertiports Atlantic. Neither KKR (owner of Atlantic Aviation) nor Ferrovial disclosed the agreed-upon price. Ferrovial Airports CEO Luke Bugeja’s statement suggested that a leading FBO firm was a better home for the still-nascent vertiport business. Kevin Cox, formerly head of Ferrovial Vertiports, is now CEO of Vertiports Atlantic.

Aireon Announces Global Space-Based Aviation VHF Service
On Dec. 10, Aireon—the provider of space-based ADS-B surveillance—announced plans for a new satellite constellation that will provide aviation subscribers with both ADS-B data and VHF communications worldwide, especially in oceanic and remote airspace. The announcement coincided with Aireon’s filing with the International Telecommunications Union for the new service. With the recent addition to its space-based ADS-B customers of the Philippines Civil Aviation Authority, Aireon’s space-based ADS-B service has subscribers covering more than 50 percent of global airspace.

London Heathrow Gets New Shareholders
Aviation Daily reported that Ferrovial has significantly reduced its 25% ownership stake in London Heathrow Airport. The end result is that French infrastructure fund Ardian holds 22.6% and Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF holds 15%, as the two largest shareholders. The other shareholders are Qatar Investment Authority (20%), GIC (11.2%), Australian Retirement Trust (11.18%), China Investment Corporation (10%), Ferrovial (5.25%), CDPQ (2.65%), and Universities Superannuation Scheme (2.1%). Ardian has considerable airport privatization experience, including prior stakes in London Luton Airport and six airports in Italy.

Frequentis Technologies to Modernize Norway’s Airspace Management
On Dec. 17, Frequentis announced an agreement with Avinor, the air navigation service provider (ANSP) of Norway. The centerpiece of the deal is an integrated system at Oslo Airport that will replace the current Advanced Surface Movement Guidance & Control System and its Electronic Flight Strips system with an integrated system that combines flight data, air and ground routing data, departure management and safety tools into integrated controller workstations. A second phase will include remote/digital tower services for 14 regional airports. Avinor has pioneered remote towers, with the world’s largest remote tower center in Bodo.

Sacramento (CA) Plans Consolidated Rental Car Facility
Infralogic (Jan. 9) reported that the Sacramento County Department of Airports has begun the procurement process for a consolidated rental car (ConRAC) facility. It issued a Request for Qualifications on Dec. 2, with qualifications due March 7. Shortlisted teams will receive the RFP for the project in the second quarter, with a deadline to submit proposals in the third quarter. The planned multi-level facility is expected to cost $390 million. The agency plans a “hybrid private financing approach” for the project. Customer facility charges will be the revenue source for the project’s financing.

Macquarie Shifting Airport P3 Focus in Europe
As reported recently in this newsletter, Macquarie and Ferrovial are in the process of selling their investment in AGS Airports (Aberdeen, Glasgow, and Southampton). According to Infralogic (Dec. 16), Macquarie is interested in a portfolio of airports currently owned by Ontario Teachers Pension Plan (OTPP), which include London City Airport, Brussels Airport, and the Bristol and Birmingham Airports. London City is currently owned by OTPP plus AIMCo, OMERS, and Kuwait’s Wren House fund. The article cites a rumored sale price for London City of £2 billion, which implies an EBITDA multiple of 40 times, an unprecedented airport valuation.

Joby Conducting Initial Flight Deck Testing
Aviation Daily reported (Jan. 3) that eVTOL developed Joby has completed initial cockpit testing using a company flight simulator. This is a step toward receiving FAA type certification this year. Still to come is testing in an actual Joby eVTOL, which depends on having a “conforming” aircraft to test. That flight testing is scheduled for later this year, which is a key step toward FAA type certification of its production model eVTOL.

Bristol Airport Plans Expansion, Amid Possible Ownership Changes
The U.K.’s Bristol Airport (BRS) has unveiled a plan to increase its passenger capacity by 25%, double the size of its terminal, and lengthen its runway by 490 feet. Last month’s announcement came as its largest shareholder—OTPP—is in talks with minority shareholders (New South Wales Treasury Corporation, Australian Retirement Trust, and StepStone Group) about selling its majority stake.

Greenland to Get Digital Tower System
Frequentis has been selected to provide a digital tower for Greenland’s new Qaqortoq Airport. This decision avoids the larger expense of constructing a conventional control tower for a greenfield airport, as well as providing superior performance under low-visibility conditions. By contrast, here in the United States, the Gary-Chicago Airport has been awarded a $1.7 million federal grant so it can replace its aging tower with a conventional bricks and sticks control tower. More evidence that the U.S. ATC system is no longer the world’s most advanced.

Lisbon Airport Gets Near-Term Improvements, Prior to New Airport
ANA Aeroportos de Portugal has announced a $246 million contract for near-term improvements to Lisbon Huberto Delgado Airport (LIS). The project will add a 10-gate pier to Terminal 1. The Portuguese government last year announced plans for a new Lisbon Airport, about 20 miles from the city center. The planned opening date is sometime in 2034. ANA is owned by Vinci Airports.

Queensland Airports Stake Sale Values It at $2.05 Billion
The winning bidder for 74.25% of Queensland Airports Limited was KKR and Skip Capital. QAL owns four regional airports—Gold Coast, Townsville, Mount Isa, and Longreach. Sellers of the 74.25% stake were The Infrastructure Fund, Australian Retirement Trust, and SAS Trustee Corp. Based on QAL’s recent earnings, the EBITDA multiple of the transaction was 25.6.

Boom Supersonic Nears Mach 1 Speed
In its ninth test flight, Boom’s XB-1 technology demonstrator last month reached a speed of Mach 0.87 during a nearly hour-long flight from Mojave Air & Space Port in California. The test flight also exceeded 25,000 ft., nearing the planned cruise altitude of the production supersonic airliner, 30,000 ft.

Malaysia Airports Gets Takeover Offer
Infralogic reported (Nov. 18) that Malaysia Airports has received a formal takeover offer. The consortium led by Khazanah Nasional and Employees Provident Fund offered $2.46 per share for the 59% of the company that it does not already own. That offer implied that the airports company is worth $4.1 billion.

Auckland Sells Airport Stake for $775 Million
Last month the Auckland, New Zealand Council completed the sale of its 9.7% holding in Auckland International Airport. The sale yielded $775 million. The underwriter was UBS, which sold the shares to institutional shareholders. Some analysts consider that the price significantly over-valued the airport.

Thoughts About U.S. Space Policy
New Space investment veteran Jeff Greason last month published a commentary in which he suggested five executive orders aimed at increasing investment in space flights. They are too difficult to cover in a brief news note, but one has wide support in the private space launch community: move the Office of Commercial Space Transportation from the FAA to the Office of the Secretary of Transportation. Read about the other four by downloading his commentary.

Another Assessment of ATC Reform
In the Summer 2015 issue of The Journal of Air Traffic Control, recently retired ATO Chief Operating Officer David Grizzle explained why there was a serious effort under way to reform the air traffic control system. He concluded by suggesting that if that effort failed, it would likely be back in play within a decade.

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Quotable Quotes

“One reason the [Air Traffic Organization’s] systems are so expensive is because the ATO’s culture is oriented to acquiring ‘bespoke’ systems, as was done when FAA was first formed. Even though the world has changed, the attitude has not. The idea that FAA might modify its requirements to accept an [off-the-shelf] system is quite foreign. Today the current mindset is to specify a custom (bespoke) system that does everything that everyone in the organization wants, versus just buying something more or less off-the-shelf that’s being built for the rest of the [air navigation service providers] on this planet. If Boeing and Airbus tried to build airplane flight decks with all the features and customization that FAA put into ERAM and STARS for ATO controllers, then no one could afford to buy those aircraft.”
—Former FAA staff member (name withheld by request), email to Robert Poole, Dec. 16, 2024

“The United States is likely to face a debt crisis within the next five years unless Congress undertakes serious fiscal reforms, says a former comptroller general who is urging lawmakers to treat the budget and deficit with the seriousness it deserves. ‘The federal government has grown too big, promised too much, subsidized too many, undercut states’ rights, and lost control of the budget,’ David Walker, who led the Government Accountability Office from 1998 to 2008, told members of the House Budget Committee [on December 11th]. Unless Congress puts the country on a different fiscal course, Walker believes there is a 70 percent chance of a serious debt crisis before the end of the decade. That crisis would have ‘serious economic security, diplomatic, and domestic tranquility consequences,’ he warned.”
—Eric Boehm, “Federal Government Has Grown Too Big, Promised Too Much, Subsidized Too Many, Warns Former GAO Boss,” Reason.com, Dec. 13, 2024

“Old NASA hands admit Artemis is a mess. But it has proved impossible to kill, or even modify, despite the fact that the state of the art has left it further and further behind. When in 2019 Jim Bridenstine, then NASA’s boss, floated the idea that the Falcon Heavy might be able to get astronauts to the Moon sooner than the SLS, he nearly lost his job. He was dressed down by Richard Shelby, then a senator from Alabama, home to the NASA center that manages the SLS. For although NASA is a space agency, it is also a well-engineered machine for distributing pork. When NASA was founded in 1958 it established centers across America, cannily recruiting a phalanx of congressional bodyguards who would be keen to preserve high-paying jobs in their constituencies. These days, as Mr. Shelby demonstrated, it is the bodyguards who run the show. Mr. Isaacson and Mr. Musk certainly have the experience and the zeal to whip Artemis into shape. Unfortunately, it is far from clear whether that will be enough to overcome Congress, which exercises control over NASA’s budget and which looks on delivering goodies to constituents as a higher purpose.”
—“Heavy Lift,” The Economist, Dec. 7, 2024

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