Trump Promised a Balanced Budget. Don't Believe It.

In light of one of the more outlandish claims that President Donald Trump made during Tuesday night’s joint address to Congress, an important reminder: There is no plan to balance the budget.

In fact, the budget framework currently making its way through Congress would likely widen the federal government’s budget deficit rather than reduce it.

“In the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget. We are going to balance it,” the president said midway through his 90-plus minute speech. The line got some of the loudest applause of the night from Republican lawmakers—which might be a small silver lining, as it indicates at least a rhetorical interest in fiscal responsibility.

Still, it would be better for Republicans to put their votes where their mouths are. The budget framework that passed the House in a near-party-line vote last week includes about $2 trillion in budget cuts that would be spread out over the next 10 years, but those proposed spending cuts would be swamped by $4.5 trillion in new deficits—largely to offset the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. Though the specifics still need to be fleshed out, the bill charts a course toward higher spending levels and more borrowing.

Even if Trump and the Republicans in Congress change course and don’t pass a deficit-increasing budget this year, that still leaves the federal government a long way from having a balanced budget. Budget deficits over the next 10 years will average around $2 trillion annually, according to the Congressional Budget Office (and that’s with the baked-in assumption that the tax cuts are not extended).

Meanwhile, total discretionary spending is about $1.8 trillion. That means you could cut every single dollar that the federal government spends on items other than entitlements and interest payments on the existing debt, and the budget still would not balance.

It’s true that we desperately need to rethink how much the government spends on everything, including perceived sacred cows like the Pentagon, but there is no realistic future in which Republicans are imposing deep cuts on defense spending in the name of a balanced budget. And, yes, Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency is doing some good work to root out waste and fraud, but cutting a few billion dollars here and there, while prudent, does not pave the way for a balanced budget. Not even close.

To be clear, a president promising a balanced budget is a welcome thing. Reducing the deficit is not just an important fiscal policy goal but a moral imperative that will help ensure future economic growth and broad prosperity.

But there has to be a plan to achieve that outcome, or else it is nothing more than a cheap applause line.

Trump will soon have an opportunity to prove otherwise: The White House is expected to put forth an official budget proposal sometime in the next month or two.

When that document becomes public, it will be worthwhile to remember what Trump said on Tuesday night.

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