U.S. Lacks Ability to Deter Adversaries

Thomas McInerney LTG, USAF (Ret) and Paul E. Vallely MG, US Army (Ret)

Guest Editorial: Bill Gertz

The new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has warned that the U.S. military currently is unable to deter China and other adversaries and called for urgent defense reforms. Gen. John Caine, who was sworn in as chairman on Monday, stated in recent Senate testimony that the weaknesses include an inability of the military system to support and respond rapidly to a conflict. “The U.S. does not have the throughput, responsiveness, or agility needed to deter our adversaries,” Gen. Caine stated in written answers to the Senate Armed Services Committee.

The disclosure comes as the U.S. military is facing potential conflict with China in the Taiwan Strait where the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has said China has been rehearsing for large-scale military operations against a key U.S. partner, Taiwan. Adm. Sam Paparo, the commander, told a Senate hearing last week that China is engaged in “unprecedented aggression” against Taiwan. Adm. Paparo said U.S. forces can deter China and prevail in a conflict but warned that “the margin is eroding.” The command needs “additional sustained investment” in long-range weapons and a strengthening of air and missile defenses with drones and artificial intelligence, Adm. Paparo said.

Other potential conflicts are looming in the Middle East over efforts to stop Iran’s nuclear program and Tehran’s use of proxy forces in Yemen to stifle international shipping in the Red Sea. Russia also poses a major threat. Moscow is stepping up military operations against Ukraine while so far turning down appeals from President Trump for a ceasefire and peace talks. At another point in the written answers, Gen. Caine said that based on public reporting he is confident the military has the materiel, equipment, training and personnel “to meet its current challenges.” Those challenges include protecting U.S. territory, fulfilling U.S. alliance commitments and maintaining an advantage over potential adversaries. The military’s main problem is an arms acquisition system and defense industrial base that are “not optimized for protracted conflict,” said the four-star Air Force general who was recently promoted from retired three-star rank in the confirmation process.

During his Senate testimony earlier this month, Gen. Caine said the United States faces an unprecedented and increasing risk from enemies worldwide. “Our adversaries are advancing, global nuclear threats are on the rise and deterrence is paramount,” he said. “Our national defense requires urgent action and reform across the board. We must go faster. We must move with a sense of urgency. We can never forget that our number one job is to create peace through overwhelming strength.” Mr. Trump announced last week that he plans to spend $1 trillion on defense in the next budget cycle. A spokesman for Gen. Caine did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The top priority for the Pentagon under the Trump administration is defending the American homeland and ensuring operational control over the U.S. southern border, he said. Nuclear threats posed by China’s rapidly expanding arsenal of strategic missiles and bombers is a major concern for the new chairman. Gen. Caine said a priority in his role as senior adviser to the president on military matters will be to continue the Pentagon’s multi-billion dollar nuclear modernization program.

Modernization includes building new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles, new Columbia-class missile submarines and new B-21 bombers. All three programs, however, are facing problems and delays. Much work needs to be done to keep U.S. nuclear forces credible, Gen. Caine said during an April 1 committee hearing. U.S. shipbuilding also must be improved with the congressionally mandated goal of increasing the Navy fleet to 355 ships as soon possible and developing the capability to sustain and repair them, he said. Gen. Caine also said the military is too slow to integrate advanced technology into its weapons and other systems. “It’s a huge problem. Technology is evolving so quickly that every time we field capabilities, they’re obsolete, oftentimes, when they hit the force. And that’s not acceptable.”

Great agility is needed in the system used to acquire weapons and support systems so that they can be deployed more rapidly, he said. Improving the defense industry’s ability to respond will require a mix of the best startup companies with the Pentagon’s prime contractors, he said. On U.S. nuclear modernization, Gen. Caine suggested in his written responses to the committee that he may recommend the United States increase a nuclear arsenal that is currently decades old. “The current U.S. nuclear force was designed in a different security environment,” he stated, noting that a commission on strategic forces called the current program insufficient. Gen. Caine also said the president’s Golden Dome missile defense program is a priority.

The current 44 long-range interceptor missiles based in Alaska and California need to be expanded beyond the current role of countering North Korean long-range missiles. “My priority is to ensure the deployment of a next-generation missile shield to provide for the common defense of our citizens and the nation,” Gen. Caine said. The new system will counter attacks from peer and near-peer adversaries and rogue states, he said. “My second priority is to deter — and defend our citizens and critical infrastructure against — any foreign aerial attack on the homeland leveraging modern and future missile defense technology combined with a robust proliferated space-based architecture that provides early warning and missile tracking.”

The deterrent power of the U.S. arsenal has been weakened by China’s emergence as a major nuclear power and Russia’s continued development of advanced nuclear weapons capabilities. North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal also has undermined a longstanding nuclear deterrence calculus that was based largely on the possibility of a confrontation between the U.S. and Russia. Gen. Caine said the military imbalance between China and Taiwan is “stark” thanks to the growing ability of the Chinese military to project power across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. He has said he will review U.S. defense support for the island democracy.

Asked about a military defense, Gen. Caine said he supports the current policy of opposing any unilateral changes in the fragile status quo between China and Taiwan and helping Taiwan bolster its defenses. China’s military remains a significant concern because of its rapid expansion and application of new weapons and technology, including nuclear and hypersonic missiles, he said. China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, however, is deficient in military leadership, long-distance logistics and urban warfare, along with a lack of modern warfare experience, Gen. Caine said. In the Indo-Pacific, Gen. Caine stated that he is opposing a congressionally mandated establishment of a joint force headquarters. The Navy’s Pacific Fleet would serve as a joint task force in the event of a future conflict in the region, he said.

Bolstering defenses on Guam also will be a priority in helping to effectively deter regional aggression, he said. Asked about the views of the federal government that China poses the biggest threat to the U.S., Gen. Caine appeared to offer a softer view than other U.S. military commanders. “Many of the Chinese Communist Party’s values and interests are at odds with those of the United States,” he said.

1. Bill Gertz, The Washington Times, 4.15.2025

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