BATTLE PLANS: Defusing The Bolts

Ravens Defense v. Chargers Offense

Force more drop back scenarios

As we know all-too-well about the Greg Roman offense, it’s a front-running style attack. It’s at its best when ahead in down and distance, on early downs. Going back to 2019 and 2020 when Roman’s offense was at its most prolific in the ground game, it dictated the terms and stayed out of third-and-obvious situations. However, on the flip side, his offenses were ill-equipped to handle those obvious passing situations.

Orr needs to be prepared for Roman’s early-down offensive attack with an aggressive run-first approach. He employed a heavier emphasis on taking away the run against Pittsburgh to force Russell Wilson in obvious passing situations on third down. A similar approach makes sense to force Roman out of his play-calling comfort zone.

Specifically, disguised run blitzes that show a two-high look pre snap but quickly morph into Cover 1 post snap is one way to clutter gaps in the box. Last week, Orr kept Hamilton back more often in center field coverage. That might set up well for Hamilton to be a surprise walk-up run blitzer, especially to help in run support as an eighth defender. Moreover, the advantage of Hamilton timing his movement right before the snap might fool Justin Herbert into thinking he has a lighter box to work against.

When Herbert is operating off play-action to throw the ball, strategic backside blitzes or even inside backer blitzes (timed when Herbert has his back turned) would be effective to get him off his spot. Herbert gains 3.2 more yards per attempt when not pressured (8.9 Y/A) than when pressured (5.7 Y/A), the 4th-largest positive difference among qualified quarterbacks this season.

All of this early-down success will be for not if the pass rush isn’t able to capitalize. The Ravens have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 31.7% of drop-backs faced, the 10th-lowest rate in the league. But last week was an encouraging performance in those drop-back situations against Wilson.

The Roman Way — with a Twist

The interesting part about Roman’s offense in Los Angeles is how he’s passing the ball more than you’d think. The Chargers ran the ball 10.5% more often than expected prior to their Week 5 bye, the 4th-highest rate in the league. Since returning from the bye in Week 6, they have run the ball 0.5% less than expected, the 4th-lowest run rate over expected in that span. Additionally, Justin Herbert’s play action rate has increased from 27.0% (10th) pre-bye to 34.1% (5th) post-bye.

The simple explanation is with LAC running the ball so effectively, especially from predominant 21 (17.6% of their snaps, 5th most overall) and 22 personnel sets (11.4% of their snaps, 2nd most), there’s a natural path to play action from heavier formations. Unlike in Baltimore, Roman is relying more on his backs to influence those plays vs. relying on the read-option game from Herbert.

This should be a familiar strategy to Ravens fans: force heavier defensive personnel and stacked boxes to open up windows in the play action passing game. But if Baltimore can stick in their nickel defense and stop the run out of light boxes, they can take away a major aspect of the Chargers’ offense.

So far this season, they haven’t just stopped the run out of light boxes; they’ve demolished it. Opponents are averaging 3.3 yards per carry against the Ravens’ light boxes with just a 2.3% explosive rush rate, some of the best numbers in almost a decade.

Roquan Smith has been a major factor in that success, but even if he misses this Monday Night tilt, Baltimore is equipped to line up against GRo’s two-back looks, especially given how well their interior defensive front has been playing. Trenton Simpson and Malik Harrison can provide enough heft in light boxes to stop the run, allowing the Ravens to stay in nickel personnel to defend against play action.

Winning the early-down battle will go a long way in making play action less effective. But even if the front seven can slow the run, Roman will mix in play action to hold the linebackers accountable. They will need to be precise with their depth and drops in coverage, or Herbert will have a field day finding open windows in the passing game.

Defend the Deep Ball

The Ravens have finally found the recipe for success at safety: Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington. They largely blanketed the deep areas of the field against Russell Wilson, who completed just one of his passes over 20 yards in Week 11, per Pro Football Focus. His lone completion was a perfect throw-and-catch to George Pickens that neither safety had a chance of influencing.

Wilson is a prolific deep ball thrower, but Herbert’s arm is on another level. He’s thrown seven touchdowns to zero interceptions on passes of over 20 air yards with the second-most passing yards off deep passes in the NFL this year. Keeping Hamilton at free safety will discourage and disrupt deep balls, as the former first-round pick has played 362 coverage snaps without allowing a touchdown as the nearest defender, the second-most in the NFL this year. Washington may not be as dominant as his teammate, but he’s rarely out of position and consistently makes plays on the ball. Consistent use of two-high safeties with Cover 2 and Cover 4 play-calls will take discourage deep throws and ensure help is available if Herbert still wants to take his chances.

However, maintaining last week’s safety duo brings with it some obvious drawbacks. If Hamilton stays as a deep safety, he can’t drop into the box to replace a potentially sidelined Roquan Smith in nickel and dime packages. He also can’t blitz off the edge as often, where he’s registered a 34.6% pressure rate, the third highest of any defensive back since 2018.

(This begs an intriguing thought experiment: if you made an NFL defense out of 11 clones of the same player, who would be the best player to choose? Kyle Hamilton has to be up there along with Fred Warner and Micah Parsons.)

The Ravens will have to come up with multiple solutions to these obstacles. Even if they wanted to put Marcus Williams or Eddie Jackson on the field, neither excel in the box. Malik Harrison can play next to Simpson on early downs, but he’s a liability in coverage on late downs.

One option is Chris Board, a veteran linebacker mostly known for his special teams prowess who was quietly the Ravens’ go-to coverage linebacker at the end of his first stint in Baltimore. Of his 616 defensive snaps in 2020 and 2021, 78.7% were spent in coverage or as a pass-rusher, per PFF. Out of an extremely limited sample size of 11 snaps this year, eight were in coverage compared to just three in run defense.

The Ravens could also try some defensive fronts with four pass rushers and a SAM linebacker. Malik Harrison, Kyle Van Noy, and even Tavius Robinson can line up off the edge and blitz while occasionally dropping into coverage against the Chargers’ underwhelming pass-catching tight ends and running backs. Sending five-man rushes consistently can be risky, but if linebackers are going to be a liability in coverage, Orr might as well put them in a position to succeed by playing on the ball.

Ravens Offense v. Chargers Defense

Manipulate the Defense with Henry and Heavy

Coming off their worst offensive showing of the season, the Ravens have their work cut out for them to rebound in Week 12. The Chargers have allowed just 14.5 points per game this year, the lowest in the NFL.

Enter Lamar Jackson, who is 3-0 in his career against teams entering the week as the league’s top scoring defense with a 110.0 passer rating. Get your popcorn, folks. This should be a good one.

Chargers’ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, started his NFL coaching career as a defensive assistant in Baltimore and spent two years as the Michigan’s DC before following Jim Harbaugh to Los Angeles. His path closely mirrors that of Mike Macdonald, and so does his defense. They are steeped in the same principles: a strong run-stopping defensive line that allows the defense to operate out of light boxes with nickel and dime personnel.

In Week 6, the Ravens found success against the Commanders by forcing them into base personnel with heavy formations. Washington consistently trotted out an extra linebacker on the field, opening up a ton of space for Lamar in the play action passing game.

The Chargers are likely to be far more stubborn. They used dime packages (23.3%, second highest) at a higher rate than base (21.7%, 22nd highest) and continue that trend against heavy offensive formations, with a 20.3% dime rate against 12 personnel compared to a league average of 2.3%. Los Angeles also uses light boxes (six or fewer defenders in the box) 82.1% of the time, a league-high, with a league-low 27.2% usage of loaded boxes (more defenders than blockers in the box).

The Chargers have not, however, been as successful as the Ravens at stopping the run out of light boxes, yielding 4.8 yards per carry, though that is still the 10th-lowest mark in the league.. Baltimore, meanwhile, has averaged 5.9 yards per carry against light boxes this season, though they’ve faced them just 38.8% of the time, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL.

That will change on Monday night: the Chargers will line up in light boxes and dare the Ravens to bully them out of it. It’s only fitting that the third Harbowl demands that Baltimore play some good old-fashioned smashmouth football with under center runs out of heavy formations.

The Ravens have averaged a league-leading 5.6 yards per carry from under center, accounting for 43.8% of their run plays, the team’s highest in Jackson’s career. The Chargers have allowed 4.9 yards per carry to under center runs this year, the fifth-most in the league. Los Angeles is fine with that; their philosophy is that runs are less efficient and less explosive than passes, so they’ll take their chances against the run with light boxes to devote more resources to pass defense.

The challenge before Todd Monken is to attack those light boxes and nickel/dime personnel with such efficiency and explosiveness that the Chargers have no choice but to adjust. They are less likely to budge at the sight of two-tight end sets, but Patrick Ricard might move the needle. The Ravens have run 21 (21.3) and 22 (12.9%) personnel at top-three rates this year with a league-high 21 touchdowns with two or more running backs (which includes Ricard) on the field.

In a limited sample size of 30 snaps this year, the Chargers have matched those offensive formations with 26 snaps of base personnel. Even if they don’t make that adjustment right away, Baltimore can force the issue. Trotting out the 300-pound fullback against the Chargers’ light defense will give the Ravens a numbers advantage in the run game, even without utilizing the read-option game with Jackson (which they still should). The offensive line can hit double-teams up front with Ricard and the tight ends climbing to the second level to set up big runs for Henry, leaving Minter no choice but to give in and put more linebackers on the field.

Pull the Trigger vs. Single-High

Los Angeles deploys light boxes so they can limit opposing passing offenses with league-leading rates of two-high safeties (76.6%) and Cover 4 (26.6%). Forcing the Chargers into heavier boxes and base personnel will open up the passing game by pulling defenders closer to the line of scrimmage with more Cover 1 and Cover 3 looks.

The Ravens can then deploy multiple tight ends to exploit mismatches in the passing game, a core part of their offense this year. Their 7.0 yards per play with two or more tight ends (at volume at a 44.9% clip!) is the highest in the NFL in almost a decade. If Baltimore can establish dominance on the ground, they can give Greg Roman a taste of his old medicine with play action passes out of heavy formations targeting their skilled group of tight ends.

Mark Andrews has feasted on crossing routes all season, and Isaiah Likely is a big play threat on deep balls and after the catch. They can beat linebackers with ease and can even separate from defensive backs, especially with the aid of play action. 70% of Charlie Kolar’s snaps have come as a run blocker this year, per PFF, allowing him to be a sneaky threat as a pass-catcher. He has delivered when called upon this year with an average of 3.21 yards per route run, which ranks second on the team behind fellow big-play merchant Tylan Wallace.

The Chargers might try to go back to nickel against 12 personnel, especially on longer downs, but they’re still more likely to run single-high if they’re forced to respect the run in general. Obviously, going back to 21 and 22 with Ricard is an option, especially to help Henry deliver the kind of second-half knockout blow he’s landed so many times this year.

But Monken has plenty of ways to attack single-high shells out of 12 personnel. He can split one or both of his tight ends into the slot to force the Chargers to line up in single-coverage on the outside or expose themselves to the read-option game against light boxes. He can also dial up flood and dagger concepts to find soft spots against Cover 3 while using his tight ends to occupy the deep safety against Cover 1 to set up 1-on-1 matchups on the outside.

The best part of all of this is that the Ravens can still run the ball against loaded boxes. Henry has faced loaded boxes on 40.1% of his rushing attempts, the second-highest rate this year among backs with at least 50 carries. His 6.0 yards per carry, 51.9% success rate, and +174 rush yards over expected against loaded boxes all lead the league, so Baltimore can continue running the ball against loaded boxes to pick up consistent yards on the ground and further expose the Chargers to play action.

Underneath vs. Two-High

Regardless of their efforts to force the Chargers into single-high shells and heavier personnel, the Ravens will still need to find ways to move the ball through the air against two-high nickel and dime packages.

The Chargers’ use of two-high shells conveys their desire to limit deep passes and keep everything in front of them. The Ravens have to force them to close and tackle on underneath passes instead of testing them downfield, where the Chargers have forced a tight window on 20.2% of their Cover 4 snaps, which ranks third among NFL defenses.

Jackson has excelled avoiding tight windows in favor of open receivers this year. His 10% tight window rate is the second lowest among all QBs his season. Three of the Ravens’ four losses have come when that jumps to 14.6% or higher, while Baltimore is 5-1 when Jackson’s tight window rate is below his season average.

Rather than force the ball downfield, Jackson has to take open windows underneath and let his playmakers pick up yards after the catch. Monken can help out his quarterback by scheming up passes into space for easy completions and YAC potential, like screens, crossers, and zigs. Every pass-catcher is a threat as a ballcarrier, letting Monken work the underneath game out of 11 and 12 personnel with play actions and RPOs to open up more of the field.

Jackson can return the favor to his offensive coordinator with his magical ability to extend plays behind the line of scrimmage. Jackson frequently keeps his eyes downfield, hunting for the spectacular throws that dominate his career highlight reel. That’s not always a bad thing, but it’s a risky strategy against a defense devoted to forcing tight windows in deep coverage.

Instead, Jackson should look for one of his receivers to shake free underneath. Most of the Chargers’ YAC and YAC over expected this season have come against drop-backs over 2.5 seconds, indicating struggles to stick with receivers for long periods of time. They get deeper in their zone drops, opening up more space and YAC potential underneath. Justice Hill can also peel out of the backfield after initial pass protecting duties to offer an easy outlet for Jackson.

Keeping his eyes closer to the line of scrimmage will also allow Jackson to better survey the scrambling potential. 70.6% of his scrambles have come against light boxes this year, with 213 rushing yards (and a league-leading +65 over expected) so he can take off and burn the Chargers for dropping deep downfield in coverage.

1 on 1 Matchup: Ladd McConkey vs. Marlon Humphrey

Justin Herbert has found his new WR1: first-round pick Ladd McConkey, who leads the Chargers with a 23.8% target share and a 29.2% air yards share this season. His +35.5 total receiving EPA leads NFL slot receivers this year, and his 2.4 yards per route run and 12.3% first down rate ranks ninth and third among rookie receivers since 2018. 299 of his snaps have come out of the slot compared to just 132 lined up out wide, per PFF, leading to a matchup with Marlon Humphrey in the slot.

The Ravens’ struggles stopping opposing passing offenses have overshadowed an All-Pro caliber season from Humphrey, who is playing his highest rate of snaps in the slot since 2020. He has allowed just 0.55 yards per coverage snap with opposing passers managing just a 44.5 passer rating when targeting him, both of which lead defenders with at least 75 snaps in the slot, according to PFF.

Humphrey has to disrupt McConkey with press coverage off the line of scrimmage to keep him from being an easy outlet for Herbert, who is willing to target his rookie receiver despite tight windows. McConkey’s 15.9% tight window rate jumps to 19% in the slot, so Herbert won’t shy away from testing Humphrey even when he is playing at a high level.

That spells opportunity for Humphrey, who has a career-high five interceptions that leads all NFL CBs. His turnovers have had a massive impact on the defense’s ability to get off the field and give their offense better field position.

Dev Panchwagh contributed to this article

All stats via Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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