Best Player Props for Ravens-Chargers

Well last week was a wake-up call. After starting the season with 10 straight weeks of profit, we left Pittsburgh with a big fat goose egg, going 0-5 on our player prop selections. Ever since Lamar Jackson became the Ravens franchise quarterback, the Ravens have fielded a significantly better team than the Steelers, but they never seem to be able to put it all together against their archrival.

We will get another shot at them in a few weeks, but for now we turn the page to the ‘Harbowl’. Another tough matchup this week for the Ravens as they travel across the county to face the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night football. I’m confident in the Ravens to bounce back as long as they don’t shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly throughout the game as they did last week. The Chargers are a well-coached team that’s playing good football as of late, but the Ravens are more talented across the board. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are an NFL best 41-18 in prime time games, and the Ravens have seen much success as of recent traveling across the country for big time games.

From a player prop perspective, the strategy here will be getting back to the basics, as I believe that’s exactly what the Ravens gameplan should be for Monday Night Football.

In what needs to be a bounce back week for both me and the Ravens, here are the player props I’ll be taking for Monday Night.

Derrick Henry Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (+105 ESPN Bet)

This bet was the backbone of this piece to start off the year and it served us well. The Ravens need to get back to their winning formula, which is pounding the rock with their future hall of fame running back, then picking and choosing their spots to beat the opposing defense over the top. The Ravens are 6-0 in games where Henry reaches this mark. He is the tone setter for this offense and if they can get him going, it will be a long night for the Chargers run defense that allows 110.5 rushing yards per game. After averaging 5 yards per carry on 13 attempts, Henry notably didn’t get any touches (that weren’t negated by penalty) in the fourth quarter of last week’s game.

The Ravens can’t make that mistake again, and I’m confident they won’t. Henry hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down as he was a Minkah Fitzpatrick shoelace tackle away from breaking yet another long touchdown run. Trust the Ravens to get back to their formula and feed King Henry on Monday night, leading to him having another 100+ yard game.

Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Attempts (-110 ESPN Bet)

Not only is it always just a good idea to get this guy the ball, but the numbers are there to support this particular matchup. Per NFL Pro, the Ravens have run 43.8% of their rushes from under center, the highest rate since Lamar entered the league in 2018. When running under center, the Ravens have averaged 5.6 yards per carry, the most in the NFL. The Chargers on the other hand have allowed the 5^th-most yards per carry (4.9) on designed runs from under center this season. If the Ravens can establish the run early and put themselves in a position to be able to lean on Henry down the stretch, we should be looking at another game for Henry with 20+ carries.

Isaiah Likely Over 2.5 Receptions (-110 ESPN Bet)

Likely, an extremely talented young tight end, is a key offensive piece for the Ravens. He has averaged four targets per contest in his last five full games, hauling in 75% of those targets in that span. The Chargers will be without linebacker Denzel Perryman on Monday Night. Without Perryman, who leads the team in tackles, the Chargers will lean on the likes of Troy Dye and Nick Nieman to patrol the middle of the field in his place. Neither linebacker is particularly effective in coverage, and Lamar and the Ravens offense should exploit this matchup and look for their tight ends across the middle of the field. Three receptions feels like a good spot for Likely here off a game where he was heavily involved in the passing attack.

JK Dobbins Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-120 ESPN Bet)

Death, taxes, and Greg Roman running the ball. Those are the only certainties we have in this life so we might as well try and profit from them when we can. Dobbins has had a productive season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry, and has reached this mark in his last four games. We’ve heavily leaned on fading the opposing teams’ running backs this season and have seen success in doing so. The Ravens, however, may be without some key members of the front seven. Both First Team All Pro Middle Linebacker Roquan Smith and starting Defensive Tackle Travis Jones are nursing injuries and are questionable to go this week. If we think back to the latter half of last week’s game in Pittsburgh, the Steelers saw plenty of success on the ground when Roquan wasn’t there. That is something the Chargers certainly will be monitoring heading into Monday Night. If the Ravens trot out Malik Harrison and Trenton Simpson at the linebacker position, I wouldn’t be surprised if Dobbins reaches this mark.

Quentin Johnston Under 3.5 Receptions ( -110 ESPN Bet)

In 25 career games, Quentin Johnston has only hit this mark four times, making -110 a good value play here. Johnston has the ability to hurt you over the top but has yet to develop into a reliable possession wide reviver for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. As we well know, it’s difficult for multiple receivers to be productive in a Greg Roman offense, and Ladd McConkey has assumed the role of Herbert’s go to guy at this point of the season. The Ravens defense on the other hand took a huge step forward last week in Pittsburgh. For perhaps the first time all season, they were the more impressive unit, creating chaos in the backfield with tight coverage on Pittsburgh’s receivers throughout the game. If they can build off that performance, that can lead to a tough day for Herbert with limited production from his outside weapons.

The post Best Player Props for Ravens-Chargers appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/11/25/sports-betting/best-player-props-for-ravens-chargers/