How The Signal Leak Kickstarted The “Mar-A-Lago Accord”
By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank
The Signal And The Noise
US stocks rallied sharply yesterday following an unexpectedly strong services PMI report and comments from Donald Trump suggesting that reciprocal tariffs due to take effect next week may be somewhat watered down. Trump said that he “may give a lot of countries breaks” as he would be “embarrassed” to charge the USA’s trading partners tariff rates commensurate to the barriers that US exporters face to access those markets. However, it DOES seem to be the case that a ‘Dirty 15’ countries running persistent large trade surpluses with the United States will be targeted.
The NASDAQ rose 2.27%, the S&P500 closed up 1.76% and the DOW finished 1.42% higher. European stocks struggled, as did the Nikkei, but both Hong Kong and mainland China indexes closed higher. US 10-year Treasury yields rose by almost 9bps to 4.34%, and 2-year yields we’re also up by almost 9bps to 4.04%.
Bloomberg reports here.
As mentioned in this Daily yesterday, European officials are already sweating on whether they can rely on the United States to provide Dollar liquidity via Fed swap lines in a crisis. The logical response to this kind of uncertainty is for developed market central banks to be forced into holding more substantial foreign currency reserves, as developing market central banks typically do.
That means more bids for US Treasury securities, and another way in which the US grand strategy of holding borrowing costs low while safeguarding the global role of the Dollar, narrowing the trade deficit and rebuilding US industrial capacity to ensure hard power supremacy vis-à-vis China could play out.
Tyler Durden Tue, 03/25/2025 – 12:40
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/03/25/how-the-signal-leak-kickstarted-the-mar-a-lago-accord/
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