Russia, Ukraine Agree To US-Brokered ‘Ceasefire At Sea’

Washington and Moscow are seeking to revive the Black Sea Grain deal, which had held for much of 2022, allowing Ukraine to ship its grain and agricultural products to global markets.

The White House on Tuesday published two readouts from successive days of talks in Riyadh with Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which feature a ceasefire at sea ”to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.”

And even as the two warring sides continue to send drones and missiles against the other, the US said that all involved have  agreed to “develop measures for implementing” the earlier agreement to stop strikes against energy infrastructure.” But have they actually agreed? Both sides are saying yes but once again this could be very short-lived.

• ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE TO IMPLEMENT PARTIAL CEASEFIRE NOW

• OIL EXTENDS LOSSES AS UKRAINE TO IMPLEMENT PARTIAL CEASEFIRE

• KREMLIN CONFIRMS AGREEMENT ON SAFE NAVIGATION IN BLACK SEA

• ZELENSKY BLASTS US RESTORING RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS

• ZELENSKIY SAYS UKRAINE’S UNDERSTANDING IS THAT AGREED CEASEFIRE IS EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING US ANNOUNCEMENT

• ZELENSKIY SAYS HE WILL ASK TRUMP FOR WEAPONS, NEW RUSSIAN SANCTIONS IF MOSCOW BREAKS CEASEFIRE

And the one which sets things up for coming failure:

Movement of Russian military vessels beyond Eastern Black Sea would violate sea agreement, Ukraine says

Ukraine and Russia will also “continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace,” both White House statements said.

Both versions also emphasized that “the United States reiterated President Donald J. Trump’s imperative that the killing on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict must stop, as the necessary step toward achieving an enduring peace settlement.”

The Russia-specific document further indicated that the US would help “restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.” Russia and Ukraine have yet to sign on:

Russia said on Tuesday it was willing to strike a new agreement on the safety of shipping in the Black Sea – a possible stepping stone towards a ceasefire with Ukraine - but only if the United States ordered President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to respect it.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said only such an order would provide the assurances that Russia needed.

“To that end, the United States will continue facilitating negotiations between both sides to achieve a peaceful resolution, in line with the agreements made in Riyadh,” the White House said. 

But on the same day these readouts were issued, the Kremlin continued to charge that Ukraine has already continually violated the energy ceasefire.

“Ukraine continues to attack Russian civilian infrastructure, proving that Kiev does not actually want peace,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has charged.

So it remains a big question whether the energy ceasefire can ‘expand’ to include a Black Sea ceasefire, given neither has actually as yet gotten off the ground.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has also said the West is giving Ukraine false hope, also through continued arms shipments and supplies.

“Without them [Western states], Ukraine would have been defeated long ago … But you see, both London and Paris are pumping Ukraine with weapons,” Lavrov said Tuesday.